As the last American soldier leaves Kabul airport, there are growing concerns among Democrats owing to the unfolded circumstances in the month of August.
Biden’s presidency is being questioned in August; his competence, credibility, and ability to manage this situation can have devastating consequences for the midterm elections in 2022.
Biden just experienced the toughest month of his presidency. His poll numbers are declining as he grapples with a deadly crisis in Afghanistan.
The pandemic continues, and other disappointments within his party have sparked outrage and concern.
Despite concerns over the coronavirus resurgence and the uncertainty surrounding Biden’s domestic agenda in August, Democrats had a sense of optimism that the economy would be improving and that a bipartisan infrastructure deal was in the works.
However, as the month draws to a close, alarm bells sounded concerning President Joe Biden’s policy in Afghanistan. First, the Taliban took control of Kabul in a most dramatic manner; then, thirteen Americans were slain in a suicide attack. Further, growing concerns about COVID-19 have put Biden and Democratic Party in a tight spot.
President Donald Trump had already made a deal with the Taliban regarding the full withdrawal of American forces from the region, but how things unfolded in August has stunned everyone around the world.
President Biden will take all the heat since all the blame will be placed on him. Many lawmakers on Capitol Hill have already announced probes into the administration’s handling of the withdrawal.
Numbers are Against Biden for Midterm Elections Amid Afghanistan Crisis
During the first seven months of his presidency, Biden consistently achieved favorable ratings. However, this has changed recently because the Taliban retook control of Afghanistan, and the Delta variant spread across the country.
A new poll shows Joe Biden’s approval rating among adults has slipped below 50% for the first time since he became president.
The NBC News poll indicates that approval for Biden’s handling of the economy has dropped five points since April, from 52% then to 47% now.
Over the past year, Biden’s support for handling the coronavirus and the economy has declined. According to the poll, only 25% of respondents were satisfied with how he handled Afghanistan.
Biden’s overall job performance is rated positively by 49 percent of adults, while it is rated negatively by 48 percent. This is down from an April poll, in which 53 percent of Americans approved of Biden’s work and 39 percent disapproved.
Midterm Elections Could Prove to be Fatal for Democrats
The handling of Afghanistan by Biden has been viewed as damaging to his credibility. In both the House and Senate, Democrats currently hold a narrow majority.
There is widespread anxiety within the party, as Democrats have a history of struggling in their midterm elections.
As the president’s approval ratings have dropped to 47%, many analysts believe the lower chamber of Congress has already been lost in the midterms.
A majority in the House can’t be achieved with 47% of the vote, as Democrats know well, and due to this fall, Republican seat gains could exceed double digits.
Democrats don’t have an impressive history behind them. A party with control of the White House is typically hit hard in the first election under a new president.
The only modern president to have a successful first midterm has been George W. Bush after 9/11. Following Obama’s thrashing, Donald Trump was hammered in the 2018 elections. During Trump’s one midterm, Democrats gained a net of 41 seats in the House. During Barack Obama’s first electoral report card, the GOP won 63 seats, and during Bill Clinton’s, it won 54.
In the 2002 midterm elections, the nation was shaken to the core by the September 11 attacks, a time of unprecedented terror comparable only to the pandemic in modern times.
Though the midterm elections are more than fourteen months away, Democrats say they have to build up public support for Biden’s agenda.
They are optimistic about preventing the losses that the party in power has traditionally suffered in the first term of a president.
Democrats are hopeful that Biden’s infrastructure package of $1.2 trillion and the budget package of $3.5 trillion will be able to boost his standing.
In its campaign to retain the House and Senate next year, the Democratic Party intends to make Biden’s economic program a centerpiece.
Because of these packages, Democrats are hoping that their message will appeal to both swing and progressive voters. However, the progressives and moderates tussle is also promising to dent the Democrats’ popularity in the upcoming midterm elections.
Many political pundits believe that the Democratic Party needs to address the Republican onslaught carefully and in a comprehensive manner, following the hasty withdrawal from Afghanistan.
Republicans are blaming Biden for the hasty withdrawal in its entirety. But the situation in Afghanistan unfolded under different presidents.
Also, the $11 billion foreign assistance package signed by Biden earlier this year that included the pandemic relief package caused concern in Republicans, as well as the country, which was in terrible shape due to the coronavirus.
There is a noticeable sense of political fatigue among swing voters, particularly among women, young, and Black Americans, who were crucial to Biden’s success in 2020.
While addressing racism and discrimination is routinely ranked as the first priority of Black voters nationwide, followed by jobs, affordable health care, and the economy, many Black voters feel discouraged by the lack of progress Congress has made on reforming police and voting rights.
Biden’s blunders came due to the self-imposed fancy deadline to create an emotional touch of 9/11.
The active insurgents are less visible in the winter season when they take a break from their job.
Most Taliban leave to go back to their hometowns in winter, so that was the perfect time for the US withdrawal.
Undoubtedly, Kabul may have fallen to the Taliban at the end of the day, but it would have saved the US from global humiliation.
This is why data is important in handling crises. It could have also saved Biden from having such a dangerous month, ultimately help Democrats not to lose their majority.
At a time when the Democrats were already experiencing popularity hits due to the progressives’ promotion of woke culture, this episode of vulnerable August is an eye-opener for Biden and his team.
There is still over a year before the midterm elections, and all eyes are on Biden to see if he can reverse his fortunes and be able to successfully navigate the issues.
If Biden loses his narrow majority in both the House and the Senate, he will have many more obstacles in carrying out his plan.
However, other strategists caution that the party must do more to ensure that young and Black voters, who are typically less inclined to vote in midterm elections, turn out in 2022.
Eli is a Political Data Scientist with over thirty years of experience in Data Engineering, Analytics, and Digital Marketing. Eli uses his expertise to give the latest information and distinctive analysis on US Political News, US Foreign Affairs, Human Rights, and Racial Justice equipping readers with the inequivalent knowledge.