Expansion of Russia War: A Broader War Would Be a Global Conflict

by Eli Mshomi

Peaceful ideologies are shattering in the Russian-Ukraine warfare as the violence continues even after the UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres’s meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin.

At a time when there are mounting fears that the war is likely to spread beyond the border of Ukraine, the situation is getting uncontrolled as Russia is starting its aggression in central Europe as it cuts natural gas for Poland and Bulgaria.

Russia-Ukraine War can Expand in More Countries

Since the start of the war, major stakeholders believe that it should be kept inside the borders of Russia and Ukraine. As NATO sits right beyond these borders, the extension of the war means that NATO can jump into the conflict, which will be detrimental to global security.

Now fear is prevailing in Washington and Europe that this conflict can expand in neighboring countries after Russia’s announcement that it would cut the natural gas for two countries.

This was the last leverage that Putin had on European countries as almost the whole of Europe is heavily dependent on Russian oil and gas. While Europe itself announced that it would move away from Putin’s fossil fuels, however, it had to develop alternate systems before doing that.

NATO troops are stationed in both Bulgaria and Poland, which will face the consequences of this natural gas aggression. In the wider framework, this marks the beginning of the cold war ideology when both the US and USSR were busy cutting off powers of each other.

In its effort to damage its rival party, the American defense secretary called to degrade the capacity and capability of the Russian military so that its invasion of any other country could be stopped.

Thus Russia found it an opportunity to neutralize the natural gas resources of European countries, which could be a major turn in the war.

Europe knows the importance of natural gas in its economy as much of the European industries are completely dependent on Russia. This is the reason why the president of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, called the move an “instrument of blackmail.

 

Nuclear War Aggression is Real in the World Even if the West Believe Otherwise

But this is not the only reason why stakeholders should be worried about expanding war. Russia has been busy telling the world the power of its nuclear arsenals again and again.

This depicts that Putin wants to tell the world that he has other options if ground forces face chronic loss.

However, as of now, American and European officials believe that Putin cannot go nuclear in the conflict as they are not seeing any evidence of nuclear forces mobilization.

Putin is a veteran international actor and knows the nitty-gritty and possible consequences of nuclear wars. He worked as a former spy and has been present in power corridors for more than three decades now.

This is primarily the reason why the western world believes that he will not go nuclear. He has a history of invading other countries using conventional weaponry, so this Ukraine attack is not a surprise for much of the western world, yet nuclear war, they think, is out of the question.

The only problem that lies now is that Russia is trying to be more relevant, which is the primary reason it banned European gas.

Final Thoughts

By banning the gas, Putin wants to have a safe exit from the war: The US would lift sanctions from Russia, and it would open the gas pathways once again, for which Russia would scale down its forces from Ukraine. However, the social constructivism dynamics of this war suggest that both the US and Russia can perceive each other’s actions in a negative way which would trigger the war in a situation when no country wants to have a widespread war in real life.

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